17 Chief Economists Outlook Progress on the energy emergency Turning to the energy crisis, the majority of respondents (64%) show optimism about the overall trajectory of the crisis in 2023, while also highlighting the need for numerous short-term and long-term policies to deal with challenges that remain to be resolved. Oil prices have fallen back to pre- war levels, but the same is not true of global gas prices, which in November 2022 were 321% higher than two years previously. 20 The expectation that the energy crisis will be less severe by the end of 2023 reflects the current stress-testing and improvement of systems and processes, diversification of energy supply sources, improved energy efficiency and changing patterns of consumption. Progress in a range of these areas is already evident in Europe, for example, including a tripling of gas reserves, the securing of new supply deals, and a trimming of gas consumption by 15%. 21 Nevertheless, the crisis remains far from resolved. The survey asked chief economists for their views on the effectiveness of a range of options designed to deal with short-term and long-term challenges posed by the crisis for energy-importing countries. Of the short-term measures, reduction of energy consumption is the preferred one, with 55% of respondents describing it as effective and a further 27% as highly effective (see Figure 10). In addition to easing immediate pressure on the energy system and helping to avoid the worst-case scenario of blackouts, reducing energy consumption also minimizes the work that needs to be done by other policy responses. Figure 9. Energy crisis Looking ahead to 2023, do you agree/disagree with the following statement? 1 1 4 4 The energy crisis will be less severe by the end of the year than at the beginning Share of respondents (%) Strongly disagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Strongly agree 5 9 23 55 9 Source: Chief Economists Survey, December 2022 20 Based on World Bank Monthly Commodity prices, November 2022. 21 European Commission, November 2022.