4 Chief Economists Outlook Contents Executive summary __________________________________________________________ 5 1. The year ahead ___________________________________________________________ 7 Global recession risk looms __________________________________________________ 7 Inflation moderates, but slowly _______________________________________________ 9 Policymakers face trade-offs ________________________________________________ 11 2. Energy and food crises ___________________________________________________ 14 A potential peak in the cost of living __________________________________________ 14 Progress on the energy emergency __________________________________________ 17 3. Business in the new landscape ____________________________________________ 20 Expectations of rough terrain ________________________________________________ 20 Defensive strategies _______________________________________________________ 23 References _________________________________________________________________ 25 Contributors ________________________________________________________________ 28 Acknowledgements _________________________________________________________ 29 Cover: Unsplash