7 Chief Economists Outlook 1 1 4 4 Global Recession Risk Share of respondents (%) Extremely unlikely Somewhat unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Somewhat likely Extremely likely 32 5 45 18 Global recession risk looms The outlook for the global economy is gloomy, according to the results of the latest survey of chief economists. Global growth prospects remain anaemic, and global recession risk high. Despite some positive signals in the final months of 2022 – an easing of inflationary pressures, a modest uptick in consumer sentiment and stabilization of commodity prices – almost one in five respondents now consider a global recession to be extremely likely in 2023, more than twice as many as in the previous survey in September 2022. However, 32% also expect a global recession to be extremely unlikely or somewhat unlikely, more than twice as many as in September. This polarized outlook reflects a weakening of growth expectations across most but not all regions and significant continued uncertainty about the effectiveness and duration of tightening policy measures. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects around a third of the global economy to enter a recession in 2023, and it has further trimmed its forecast of global gross domestic product (GDP) for the year to 2.7%. 1 Figure 1. Global recession outlook How likely is a global recession in 2023? 1. The year ahead 1 IMF, October 2022a. Source: Chief Economists Survey, December 2022 Note: The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100% because figures have been rounded up/down. The survey also highlighted significant regional divergence in growth expectations (Figure 2) within a general pattern of weakened expectations relative to the last survey. The situation in Europe and the US is now stark, with 100% of chief economists expecting weak or very weak growth this year in the former and 91% expecting weak or very weak growth in the latter. This marks a significant deterioration in recent months: at the time of the last survey, the corresponding figures were 86% for Europe and 64% for the US.